29 Oct, 2021
Yesterday, we informed the public about the discovery we made regarding the falsification of pre-election polls by television company Mtavari Arkhi and IPSOS, which was connected with the polls in several municipalities, published by television company Mtavari Arkhi two days ago. As you know, the dissimilar data from Zugdidi exposed the fact that these traces of falsification could not be completely erased and precisely this gave us a hint that falsification had taken place here. Today, you saw the response of Mtavari Arkhi General Director Nika Gvaramia, who is trying to shift the blame onto IPSOS. In truth, the case is as follows: Not only are these two entities not two distinct companies, but this has been taking place systematically since the time when IPSOS came to Georgia and began conducting pre-election polls for Mtavari Arkhi. This falsification has been evident every time, therefore, this is coordinated action and this attempt by Mtavari Arkhi to shift the blame onto IPSOS is an even greater scandal. In reality, if we look at the figures from, say, the 2020 parliamentary elections, when a pre-election survey was conducted by IPSOS two weeks before the elections and broadcast by Mtavari Arkhi, the Georgian Dream should have received 38 percent in the elections, when in fact the Georgian Dream received 48.2 percent. I.e., IPSOS and Mtavari Arkhi gave the Georgian Dream 10.2 percent less in the survey.
You may also remember that an exit poll was conducted last year, during the parliamentary elections. According to this exit poll as well as IPSOS’ and Mtavari Arkhi’s data, the Georgian Dream garnered 41 percent, when in reality, the Georgian Dream garnered 48.2 percent. I.e., in this case as well, the manipulation amounted to 7.2 percent, which was subtracted by IPSOS and Mtavari Arkhi. Even now, in the run-up to the local self-government elections, when the survey was conducted, the survey showed that the Georgian Dream’s rating amounted to 35 percent according to IPSOS and Mtavari Arkhi, when in reality the Georgian Dream received 46.7 percent – i.e., IPSOS and Mtavari Arkhi gave the Georgian Dream 11.7 percent less. This proves once again that this is not an exception; we discussed this yesterday as well, and even before this, we have said that the polls were being manipulated. However, we could prove this only indirectly, by comparing the results of surveys and the results of the elections, and of course, when there is a ten-percent difference on average, this is nothing short of manipulation, hence our discussion of this issue. However, yesterday we were given the opportunity to see the facts directly, as it turned out that the traces of manipulation had not been erased. Therefore, these attempts to shift the blame are, of course, superfluous. Additionally, as you are aware, IPSOS does not field the surveys itself – the surveys are fielded at the given location by a local company, therefore this group includes not only IPSOS and Mtavari Arkhi but also Business Consulting Group (BCG), a local company. We have discussed this many times – this is a research organization that has ties with Levan Tarkhnishvili who, as you know, is one of the leaders of European Georgia and who was the chairman of the Central Election Commission in 2008, when the parliamentary elections were held.
You may recall this slide from other presentations – when we talked about ballot shortages, we used to show you that the shortage of ballots in imbalanced protocols in 2020 or 2021 was within the average margin that is usually observed during elections, with 2008 being the exception when the shortage amounted to one percent. This is precisely the year when Levan Tarkhnishvili was the chairman of the Central Election Commission. Also, you are of course aware that everyone is in agreement that a great deal of manipulation and rigging took place during those elections. Correspondingly, when we are dealing with a company that is fielding surveys, which has incurred such reputational damage, and which is associated with persons who have participated in election fraud; when we are dealing with television company Mtavari Arkhi and IPSOS, given that, as we have shown you, the data from the two previous elections revealed a ten-percent difference between the actual data and the polls – any talk of shifting the blame is already superfluous, and we are dealing with an obvious manipulation.
